US Inflation Watch June 2026 – Highlights
Inflation’s moving the wrong way. Core CPI is drifting further from target, and the breadth is widening rather than staying confined to a few noisy categories. Supply-chain bottlenecks are still causing damage, and PPI keeps climbing as shortages stemming from the US-Iran war work their way down the chain. In addition, the accelerating costs of inputs tied to the AI boom are becoming their own distinct inflationary channel.
Oil gave some relief in June, falling from nearly $120 a barrel back to the $70-80 range. Food didn’t. Bad weather, a shrinking cattle herd, tariffs and conflict are keeping grocery prices elevated, with little near-term relief for consumers.
The labour market looks steadier. June payrolls rose a modest 57,000, unemployment edged down to 4.2%, and wage growth is easing rather than adding fresh cost pressure.
Rates are the thing to watch. Fed Funds Futures turned more hawkish on sticky inflation data, now pricing a 25-bps hike at some point this year. Forward guidance from the Fed has thinned, so treat that pricing with some caution.
Inside our June 2026 report you’ll find 20+ charts across consumer and producer prices, commodities, wages, inflation expectations and monetary indicators.