Market Reports - US Inflation Report - September 2024
US Inflation Watch SEPTEMBER 2024 - Highlights
• CPI data improved in July and August, with core CPI stabilising. Core PCE readings were more
favourable, supporting the Fed’s decision to cut rates
• PPI components linked to core PCE inflation came in lower than expected, but rising trade services
inflation could keep inflation expectations high
• Wage growth is slowing as job openings and payroll growth decline. Wage inflation risks remain
subdued, with fewer incentives to switch jobs and the quits rate falling below 2%
• M1 and M2 rose in July and August, with M2 increasing 0.6%—the largest monthly gain this year—
driven by strong money market fund inflows
• Liquidity conditions were stable in July and August. While reserves remain ample at over $3.3 trillion,
their uneven distribution raises concerns for smaller banks
• Recent Fed guidance suggests two 25bps cuts in November and December, raising the risk of market
disappointment if the labour market improves or inflation data falters
The newsletter presents 20 charts comprising 23 key inflation indicators grouped into five categories of economic data.